ESEA MDL Season 35 gets under way this week with the first matches so what better time to have a look at what the next few months may have in store? A quick recap of things that have happened in the off-season, some general trends as well as individual team previews to follow.
Season 33 Finally Completed — AGO go to ESL Pro League
Season 33’s planned Global Challenge was postponed and eventually cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As it was impossible to conduct in the normal fashion, the three European teams who had qualified via their places in the Season 33 play-offs instead competed in a mini-tournament for a single spot in ESL Pro League Season 12. x-kom AGO won the spot despite losing to Sprout in the tournament opener; the Poles beat Galaxy Racer (formerly Japaleno) and then avenged themselves on Sprout 3–1 in the final, despite the default map disadvantage, to secure qualification for ESL Pro League Season 12, which will take place as an online regional tournament.
Consequently, AGO (who finished 2nd in the league and 5th-6th in the play-offs of season 34) will not be participating in the upcoming season. forZe, who competed in ESL Pro League S11 and last competed in MDL in season 32, have been invited to replace them.
Relegation Springs Surprises — Riders and Heretics down, AVEZ, Nexus and Secret up
The Relegation Play-Offs, which pit the bottom four sides from the previous season against the #2–5 sides from Advanced and four national champions from the Climber Cup, took place in mid-August. Three qualification spots were on offer to join sAw in season 35, the Portuguese side qualifying automatically as the winners of Advanced season 34.
French side Heretics, who combined the relegation play-offs with competing in ESL One Cologne, were my pick to go up, having qualified through the Climber Cup with a significantly higher ranking than the other teams in it. But a shock loss to Unicorns of Love sent them into the losers’ bracket, and despite taking out 9ine in a 30th round decider in the semi-finals, they lost in the final after a poor start on both halves of third map Inferno.
Despite a poor regular season 34, and the roster lock meaning that they could not use their newest signings, Movistar Riders have been consistently ranked in the top 40 on HLTV and were among the favourites to make it through the Relegation competition and defend their spot in MDL. But a loss to AVEZ put them in the lower bracket, and after CeX forfeited their match, Riders were dumped out by Secret 2–0, though with their new roster they should be a threat in Advanced next season should they compete.
mens and pro100 appear to have disbanded following the regular season, and forfeited both their matches in the Relegation play-offs. Time will tell whether they will re-form and play in Advanced. With Unicorns of Love also going out (despite beating Heretics in the upper bracket semi), this means that all 4 sides who finished in the relegation places of last season’s MDL were relegated.
Romanian side Nexus, who earned their spot in Relegation as the #4 team in Advanced, came back from a map down to beat CeX and then, after mens forfeited, beat the other Germans in the bracket, Unicorns of Love, making them the first team promoted through the play-offs.
AVEZ have been a constant fixture in tier 2 cups such as Nine to Five and Malta Vibes recently, and have been rising through the rankings this year. Invited to Relegation as Polish champions via the Climber Cup, they beat Tikitakan, Movistar Riders and 9ine to become the third Polish side in MDL.
The last team to get promoted, through the losers’ bracket, was Secret. 3rd in Advanced, they had to do it the hard way after losing to Heretics in their opening match-up. But after pro100 forfeited, they took down Unicorns of Love and Movistar Riders without dropping a map, and took their revenge on Heretics in the final to complete the season 35 line-up.
Better Than Ever
Season 34 was a “training season”, where places in the Global Challenge are not available. This, combined with the withdrawal of Spirit and Japaleno, may explain why the lower-quality sides in the league performed so poorly, with only 8 wins between the bottom 3 sides all season. With all three replaced by higher-ranked teams, we can expect a closer fight for position in the league.
Most MDL teams have gone up in the rankings since season 34’s start (most notably Nemiga climbing from #55 to #28) but as well as that the start-of-season rankings are far closer together. S34 began with 5 unranked sides, S35 has none; the lowest-ranked team in the competition is Team Singularity (#87), and more than half the teams are in the HLTV top 50. Not that they can expect that to save them — pro100 started season 34 at #49, but ended the season in last place, with only two wins.
Individual Teams Preview
With four new teams joining us, four teams leaving the league, and multiple teams making roster changes in order to see improvements, the dynamic of the league has shifted dramatically since the off-season. With that in mind, let’s break down each team’s chances, starting with the teams that did well last season and ending with the new teams.
The below is just my opinion; I expect some of the below will not happen, in fact I hope it doesn’t! I would love to be proven wrong. It is much more exciting that way, when a surprise underdog topples a titan.
The Big Boys (Last Season’s Play-Off Returners)
Sprout
Finish last season: 1st (6th in league play)
Sprout come into MDL Season 35 off a stunning run at ESL One Cologne, where they arrived as rank underdogs but saw off both their local rivals, BIG and OG, before unfortunately getting swept by Vitality in the quarter-finals. Dropping AWPer oskar earlier in the year and moving to an international line-up featuring two Poles appears to have helped Sprout to progress; however there is always the fear of inconsistency.
Their play-off form last season was much better than their league play, where they suffered losses to Endpoint, GamerLegion and Alternate Attax; moreover, they also come into this season off the back of a shock 3–1 loss against AGO in the Season 33 final. Nevertheless, it is difficult to write off this team given their potential; provided they can make the play-offs I fully expect them to challenge for the title again.
Prediction for this season: Grand Finalists
Nemiga
Finish last season: 2nd (1st in league play)
Consistently ranked in HLTV’s top 30, Nemiga are a very difficult side to crack. Seemingly unstoppable during the regular league season, they lost to Sprout in the play-offs — twice (1–2 in the upper bracket final and 0–3 in the grand final), perhaps suggesting that their best of 3s are a weaker spot.
They came within a couple of rounds of stunning NaVi at cs_summit 6 and their biggest obstacle recently was protests in Belarus that resulted in the temporary shutdown of the country’s internet. Unless a top side poaches one of their players Nemiga are hot favourites to dominate the competition again.
Prediction for this season: Grand Finalists
Alternate ATTAX
Finish last season: 3rd (5th in league play)
ATTAX joined the MDL as the #1 finishers in Advanced season 33 and looked right at home immediately, taking the scalps of Sprout and Nemiga in league play before eking out a losers’ bracket series over Endpoint to secure 3rd place in the play-offs.
In the run-up to the player break they looked to be a form side, including beating Endpoint twice in 12 hours to win Malta Vibes 2 and en route to the semis of Nine to Five 1, but since then their results have tapered off a little, with a 9th-12th finish in Nine to Five 2 at the start of August their most recent tournament result. Hopefully the Germans can come back from the player break refreshed.
Prediction for this season: Play-Offs
Endpoint CeX
Finish last season: 4th (4th in league play)
When I originally wrote this article, Endpoint were my pick to push on from last season’s 4th place and fight for a place in the Global Challenge (and not just because I’m a fan). While occasionally inconsistent, they’ve been making a lot of progress as a team this year and upset MAD Lions at Dreamhack Open after narrowly losing to world #1 BIG Clan. But a recent report that entry fragger Thomas will leave to join EnVy puts the UK roster in a very different scenario. Replacing a player at short notice is difficult enough but finding a suitable replacement for their top player stats-wise will be very challenging indeed.
Much is going to depend on who that fifth player is and how quickly they can integrate him into their plans. (Current rumour has it they will be making a 1:1 replacement with Israeli youngster and FPL challenger FlameZ, last seen subbing for Singularity, joining as a stand-in.) Given the quality on the roster, they should be a decent bet to make the play-offs again — but they cannot afford to lose too many matches early in the season while they bed in a new player.
Prediction for this season: Play-Offs
FATE Esports
Finish last season: 5th-6th (7th in league play)
FATE have been consistently bubbling under in 2020. They found a play-off berth last season, and underwent a roster revamp in June that included parting ways with their coach, a move that seems to have found them success, with qualification for cs_summit 6 (even if they finished the event in last place) and a run to the final of Malta Vibes 3, where they lost to Illuminar. If they can find consistent form and avoid the sort of mistakes that saw them drop points near the end of last season, they have every chance of surprising.
Prediction for this season: Play-Offs
HellRaisers
Finish last season: 7th-8th (8th in league play)
The HellRaisers name conjures up images of some of their great sides of old, but in recent history the organisation has cycled through a lot of names (some of whom have gone on to find great success elsewhere) without much to show for it. Recent form has been better, with decent results in tier 2 tournaments and local qualifying events, but without any stand-out performances to point to. As a result they are my pick to be a surprise drop into the relegation play-offs but I expect they will have enough quality and experience to survive them regardless.
Prediction for this season: Relegation (but survive in play-offs)
Actina PACT
Finish last season: 7th-8th (3rd in league play)
In many ways the antithesis of Sprout, PACT’s best of 1 form was great and they were right in the hunt for the top play-off seed until the final few weeks, but they went out of the play-offs without a win, suffering defeats to FATE and fellow Poles AGO. They have not made any roster changes, which should mean they can maintain their form from last season, but they may also struggle to improve relative to the teams around them.
Recent matches have seen them narrowly miss out on a place at IEM New York at the final hurdle, taking out the highly-rated Heretics before losing to OG. They have also failed to make the play-offs of the Malta Vibes tournaments in 4 attempts, so consistently producing their best form will be key.
Prediction for this season: Mid-table (outside of relegation and the play-offs, invited back for season 36)
The Survivors: Last Season’s Mid-Table
Nordavind
Finish last season: 9th
Norway’s finest have spent 2020 transitioning to an international roster, with Estonian HS joining Dane Tenzki on the team. They narrowly missed out on the play-offs on head-to-head record last season; they have since benched NaToSaphiX for “philosophical reasons” rather than performance ones (the Dane was consistently one of their better performers), and signed H4RR3 and fellow Estonian FeJtz.
Having won Malta Vibes 1 before the change, Nordavind have stumbled slightly since, falling to a 0–3 record in Nine to Five 3 and a best finish of 3rd-4th at Malta Vibes 5. They should be safe from relegation given their form last season, but are unlikely to trouble the top teams without improvement.
Prediction for this season: Mid-table
SKADE
Finish last season: 10th
A Norwegian organisation with a Bulgarian team, SKADE’s duality was emphasised by their record last season, which saw them take 8 wins (including taking down AGO, FATE and Endpoint) but also 8 defeats.
They made some roster changes in June and reached the quarter-finals of Nine to Five 3 recently, having qualified through the Nine to Five Dawn competition, so that bodes well for the season ahead.
Prediction for this season: Mid-table
Singularity
Finish last season: 11th
Everyone’s fifth-favourite Danish side had a strong close to their season last year, threatening to take a play-off spot, but fell short and finished in mid-table instead — still a solid result.
Unfortunately since then they have suffered some roster turmoil, with two players leaving to form part of the new Copenhagen Flames roster, and results with various stand-ins (including coach Casle) have been mixed; though recent highlights, including victories over AVEZ and Izako Boars, will give fans hope. I think this will be a tough season for the Danes, unfortunately.
Prediction for this season: Relegation to Advanced
Wisla Krakow
Finish last season: 12th
As it is with Singularity and Denmark, so it is with Wisla and Poland. Last season’s roster, spearheaded by great performances from AWPer hades2k, improved on season 33 by avoiding the relegation play-offs entirely. They have subsequently traded the underperforming fanatyk for ponczek, and a superb run to the final of Nine to Five 3 saw them take out MIBR and North in huge upsets.
While they may lack the status of other Polish sides, there is great potential in this roster, so I’m backing them to survive again — and given recent form, a play-off finish can’t be out of the question either.
Prediction for this season: Mid-table
GamerLegion
Finish last season: 13th
GamerLegion competed last season with an unofficial international roster, consisting of two Brits, two Swedes and a Serb; surviving the season constituted a great success, with rifler mezii a particular highlight, and they were subsequently officially announced in the summer. Performances since their official signing in the summer have been positive, including a run to the quarter-finals at Malta Vibes 5, though throwing away a 14–5 lead — and potential 2–0 victory — against Alternate ATTAX at Nine to Five 2, and subsequently going down on a third map, was a huge missed opportunity. While a threat to anyone on their day, the tougher opposition they will face this season may prove to be their downfall.
Prediction for this season: Relegation (but survive play-offs)
Guess Who’s Back (Returners)
forZe
Finish last season: n/a (competed in ESL Pro League S11)
A late addition, forZe were invited to bring the league back up to 18 teams following the loss of AGO and Spirit. (They last competed in Season 32, qualifying for ESL Pro League through the Global Challenge). forZe have had an inconsistent 2020, dropping in the rankings from a high of #13 to just inside the top 30, but their results since the player break have shown great promise, most notably eliminating Spirit at Dreamhack Open Summer and winning Malta Vibes 6 and 9, making them the highest-ranked side in the league at #24 as things stand. They will be heavy favourites to do well and anything other than a run deep into the play-offs will be considered a major disappointment for the CIS squad.
Prediction for this season: Play-offs (semi-finalists)
Galaxy Racer
Finish last season: N/A (3rd in S33 play-offs, 5th in S33 league play)
The Dubai-based org picked up the Swedish Japaleno roster in between season 33 (where they finished 3rd in the play-offs) and season 35, with the team deciding not to participate in season 34.
Recent results have included a run to the semi-finals at Malta Vibes 7 and a play-off appearance at Nine to Five 3. The pieces are there for the Swedes to put together another surprise league run; I think it may be just beyond them this season but there is every reason to expect a bright future for the team.
Prediction for this season: Mid-table
The New Boys (Promoted Teams)
sAW
Finish last season: 1st in Advanced
sAw have been on a mighty run since forming at the start of the year. They won the Open League in April, and followed it up by winning Advanced last month, despite a slight stumble in the play-offs against Secret, whilst also taking season 5 of Portugal’s Master League and beating Movistar Riders in the Iberian Qualifier for Dreamhack Open Summer. There may still be progress to make for this roster, but a run into the play-offs cannot be ruled out for a side that has consistently defied expectations.
Prediction for this season: Play-offs
AVEZ
Finish last season: 3rd in Advanced
Another Polish side stuck in the shadow of more illustrious counterparts, AVEZ have used the summer months while other teams are taking a player break to make good progress, rising to their current high of #32 in the HLTV rankings and making strong showings at the Malta Vibes and Nine to Five tournaments. Since the end of last season they have added byali on a permanent basis, and the experienced ex-Virtus Pro rifler has been key to their successful run. AVEZ are one to keep an eye on for sure and should definitely challenge for the play-offs.
Prediction for this season: Play-offs
Nexus
Finish last season: 4th in Advanced
Romanian side Nexus were a surprise entrant into MDL Relegation, taking a 4th place spot in Advanced many expected to go to one of the league’s more established teams. Play-offs came shortly after LDLC eliminated them from Nine to Five 1 with an 0–3 record, but Nexus picked the right time to peak.
In the Advanced play-offs they beat Winstrike, took revenge on LDLC, and gained qualification for Relegation despite a defeat to eventual winners saW. They followed this up by beating CeX and Unicorns of Love to qualify for season 35 — as well as pulling off an upset against MAD Lions in the IEM New York Open Qualifier. Their recent victories will prove they are no pushovers, and while I feel MDL may prove a bridge too far, they can hold their heads up high with what they have already achieved.
Prediction for this season: Relegation to Advanced
Secret
Finish last season: 3rd in Advanced
The last team to join MDL, Secret struggle to stand out in many respects. They don’t have a great history to defend, having only entered the CS:GO scene late last year; nor do they have a strong roster that has shown unstoppable potential, with a number of changes in 2020. What they do have is a talent for popping up at the right time, not only avenging themselves on Heretics in the promotion play-offs but also finishing second (to the Complexity juggernaut) in Home Sweet Home 4, and since picking up Radifaction as a stand-in, they have made the quarter finals of Nine to Five 1 and beat Dignitas in the FunSPARK Ulti Qualifier. I doubt they will trouble the play-offs but I expect them to offer enough to avoid relegation as well.
Prediction for this season: Mid-table
